Picks for Monday, July 22,2002
This is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, just a recording of my thoughts.
I am Not responsible for what you do.
Make your own decisions and take responsibility for them.
The trend is down, and the down trend has no reason to change at this time. Gold is up strong since Christmas, but can't decide whether to go up or down from here, waiting on new developments. Huge gains in the price of gold are likely from here, but the downside risk of a drop of gold stock prices is also possible back down to January levels for gold stock prices. Suggest nibbling at gold so long as the general market remains anemic.

QQQ down 50 early , DOW up 50 early, after that, it depends, most likely down further,...after that it depends, .... too dynamic of a situation, but trend=down, and 8,000 on the DOW seems paper-thin. Going to 7 and then deciding what next is possible scenario. Another words, may flirt in the seven thousands this week. If so, expect NASDAQ to follow down, just on sentiment. Dow 7600 likely. Without government backed intervention, behind the scenes encouragement of big money to buy, looking for 7600 fast this week. Just speculation, could be wrong. Just putting thoughts on paper. For the record. Don't know of any reason for things to reverse course Monday morning. The issue is CEO untrustworthiness. It has neither not nor healed. May take week and a half before we see 200 points up in DOW. Until then simmering slips downward with minor bounces up of fifty, down 70,,, and greater, cascading through the 8000, then small until 7800 then quicker down to 7600, then flat then slowly sink for days under 7500,...then rush to 7200... that's my take. Could all be wrong. Good news for a week is necessary, then two more with no more bad news of the current scale of bad news.

Then surge after August 15th is highly likely, ie going into end of quarter, and the last week of August is totally dependent upon news and expectations and projections for 4th quarter and 2003.

Down September early..., brief up Oct, then down last half Oct, then up after ThanksGiving into December 10th. Then down into Christmas season.... Dow 7800 Dec 29th. Range bottom, 7185 between now and January 1st, 2003. The way I see it. Influencing factors: Israel/ Mid-east war tension. South America Finance Stability or Collapse. World bank money supply. Gold support to contain price rise of gold by those manipulating the gold price with rented gold certificates. See www.goldseek.com for a bear market presentation of the world gold situation and market expectations of a most profound view.

EP has been upgraded Sunday July 21 to a strong buy. El Paso gas pipeline . They pay dividends and the year high is over $50. Current price under $15. May be worth buying.

I don't believe the typical stocks are worth buying now, so I have elected to put some money into these. Then wait for the expected good news. The upside potential is tremendous on these. The risk is dilution or total failure of conceived plan by the company. Currently, that risk seems worth taking when the upside potential gain is considered. Last pick like this was SLGLF at $ 0.12 . It is now well over 30 cents.

WTFD appears a potential long shot candidate for high rewards if it doesn't dilute when the new S-8 comes out (expected this month, July,2002). Stock could easily exceed a triple from current levels of about 20 cents.

TTNP is another long shot. Been dormant for long time, and now being reorganized.

FLNT possible huge gainer.

PCEL at least a double in six months banning a war or economic collapse.

The upside potential is high.

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